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Geopolitics
Aman Butani

Le protector: can France replace US’ nuclear umbrella over Europe?

Le protector: can France replace US’ nuclear umbrella over Europe?
If the US ever pulls out of NATO, Europe might face a huge security gap. And as tensions rise, France is stepping up, thinking about how to protect the continent with its own nuclear arsenal. But the big question is: can France really fill a void left by the US?
There are about 17,270 nuclear warheads spread across the world, with nine countries holding them. France has around 300, which is impressive but far from America’s 5,200. Even if you add the UK’s 225 to France’s total, it’s still dwarfed when compared to Russia, which controls the largest stockpile in the world with 5,580 nuclear warheads. Moreover, most of France’s warheads are only compatible with submarine-launched ballistic missiles, so they lack the flexibility of other options.
Despite these differences, France’s nuclear power might be the continent’s best shot if the US pulls out of NATO. France, as the only nuclear power in the European Union, is already taking the issue seriously. In a televised address ahead of a special summit, French President Emmanuel Macron called Russia a "threat" and said he was opening up the discussion on using France’s nuclear deterrent to protect Europe.
France developed its nuclear arsenal back in the day to avoid relying on the US, especially during the Soviet threat. Since then, France has maintained a strong stance: its nuclear weapons are meant to protect its "vital interests" and can be launched via air or submarines in case of an attack.
But even with France’s nukes, the odds aren’t exactly in its favour. The country has about 290 warheads, compared to Russia’s massive stockpile of nearly 4,400 active warheads. The French M51 missiles could wipe out Russian cities like Moscow, but in a nuclear showdown, Russia’s missiles could hit Paris in less than 5 minutes, making France’s defense look a bit less robust.
Macron also pointed out that Russia is spending 40% of its state budget on military expansion, with plans to grow its army, tanks, and fighter jets by 2030.
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