It’s the most dangerous flash point on Earth. A tiny island. A massive superpower. And a question that could spark the next world war: Can Taiwan survive a China invasion? Let’s break it down - in 3 Questions.
QUESTION 1: Why does China want Taiwan so badly?
For China, Taiwan isn’t just a neighbor - it’s unfinished business. The Communist Party calls Taiwan a "breakaway province." Beijing says reunification is inevitable - with or without peace. Here’s why.
In 1949, after losing the civil war, the Republic of China’s defeated government fled to Taiwan. Ever since, Taiwan’s been democratic, capitalist, and fiercely independent. But China never let go. Xi Jinping sees reunifying Taiwan as his legacy move - like Putin with Ukraine. It’s nationalism, power, and history - all rolled into one.
And Taiwan? It’s not giving in. It’s electing leaders who resist Chinese pressure, and building closer ties with the West. This clash of identities is now a military standoff.
QUESTION 2: How strong is Taiwan’s defense?
Let’s be clear: Taiwan’s military is serious - 165,000 active troops, advanced missile systems and a $19 billion order backlog for US weapons. And it’s building an "asymmetric defense" strategy - smaller, smarter, deadlier tech to fight off a larger force.
But here’s the problem: China is 15x bigger militarily. The People's Liberation Army boasts of over 2 million active soldiers, one of the world’s biggest navies, and missile systems that would rain down destruction in minutes.
Even US war simulations show a full-scale invasion is devastating - for both sides. Taiwan could hold off for days, maybe weeks. But without help? Long-term survival is unlikely.
QUESTION 3: Will the US, India, and the world step in?
For decades, the US followed a policy called “strategic ambiguity”. Translation: We might help Taiwan… or not. But lately, things are changing.
In the recent past President Biden has explicitly stated, "yes, we would defend Taiwan."
The US has bases in Japan, Guam, the Philippines - all within striking distance. It would likely send troops and ships, sanction China and rally allies in Asia and Europe to join Taiwan's defence.
But this isn’t 1995. China has nukes. And a war would mean global economic chaos - especially since Taiwan's TSMC holds a 64% share of the global pure play foundry business
And what about India?
New Delhi has a complicated dance with Beijing - border tensions? Check. Trade dependence? Also check. But India also backs freedom of navigation, opposes forceful annexation, and has growing ties with Taiwan’s tech industry.
Would India send troops? Not likely. But support diplomatically and economically? Yes.
So - can Taiwan survive a China invasion? It might survive the first strike. It might even fight back hard. But long-term survival? Depends on whether the world shows up - or stays silent.
This isn’t just Taiwan’s story. It could be the next chapter in who controls the global future.
