A new UN report projects that India’s population will peak at 170 crore (1.7 billion) by 2062, before beginning to decline. With 1.45 billion people today, India has already overtaken China to become the world’s most populous country.
But unlike China—where decades of the one-child policy led to an aging population and shrinking workforce—India’s story is different.
India’s population is still growing, but much more slowly. In 2013, the growth rate was 1.33%. By 2022, it had dropped to 0.79%. The big driver? Falling fertility rates.
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According to the UN, India’s fertility rate is now 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. That means Indian women are now having fewer children than needed to maintain the population over generations.
It’s a shift world's most richest man, Elon Musk has warned about repeatedly, that falling birth rates could eventually trigger population collapse, as seen in countries like Japan and South Korea.
For India, the trend is promising but also uneven.
In southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, fertility rates have dipped far below replacement levels. These regions have benefitted from better education, healthcare, and access to family planning. But with fewer births, they’re now facing labour shortages and are increasingly relying on migrant workers from the North.
Meanwhile, in northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, fertility rates remain high, pointing to slower development and limited access to services.
This divide highlights a critical challenge: India’s population isn’t just changing—it’s changing at different speeds across regions.
Managing this transition well could be India’s greatest strength—or its biggest risk.
Because the question isn’t just how many people India will have, but where they are, how they're supported, and what future they’re stepping into.
