On the 19th of June, the foreign secretaries of China, Pakistan and Bangladesh quietly met in the southern Chinese city of Kunming.
This was not a regular diplomatic engagement. Many perceived it as a subtle challenge to India—that a new axis was forming behind its back.
An article in Pakistan’s daily, The Express Tribune, called it a ‘new bloc’. One that could eventually replace the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or the SAARC.
The intergovernmental union of South Asian states has eight members—India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
According to the Pakistani newspaper, the June 19 meeting in China was just a precursor to events where more SAARC members would be invited.
Since the SAARC’s inception in 1985, India has been playing the role of de-facto leader due to the sheer size of its population, economy and military strength.
But, the group has been dormant since 2016, after India withdrew from the yearly summit in Islamabad following a deadly terror attack on an Indian Army camp in Kashmir’s Uri.
India accused Pakistan of sponsoring terrorists who carried out the attack.
In solidarity, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan also boycotted the summit.
Since then, India has continued to engage with other members through different multilateral and bilateral forums.
But efforts to revive the SAARC have mostly been stalled, because of India-Pakistan tensions.
Now, China appears to have sensed a power vacuum, and an opportunity. It wants to expand its role in South Asia, and position itself as the leader of the region.
In their joint statement, Bangladesh, Pakistan and China explicitly mentioned that the ‘initiative wasn’t directed against any third party’. Yet, the optics of the Kuming meeting didn’t go unnoticed in India.
This was not a one-off event. A few months ago, China conducted another trilateral meeting with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The timings of these back-to-back meetings have raised concerns among India’s strategic thinkers.
It was taking place at a time when India’s relations with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh are at their lowest point.
Experts have warned that the tripartite meetings showcased a strategic encirclement of India—something China has been trying to do for decades through its ‘string of pearls’ strategy.
You see, India and China are considered rivals. Border tensions and economic and regional ambitions have fuelled the rivalry between the Asian giants.
But the India-China rivalry is also tied to maritime dominance, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region.
China imports about 80% of its oil needs from Africa and the Middle East. And these shipments pass through the Strait of Malacca, one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, and a trade chokepoint lying between Indonesia and Malaysia.
China fears that in the case of a conflict, India could block its access to the Strait of Malacca, using naval assets from its military base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
To bypass its ‘Malacca dilemma’, China has been trying to gain better access to the Indian Ocean, a region where India considers itself the natural guardian.
And to maintain naval presence in the Indian Ocean, China has been funding and building ports in India’s neighbouring countries, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Experts have dubbed this plan China’s ‘string of pearls’ strategy.
But India fears that these ports can double up as China’s military bases, helping them reach into the Indian Ocean.
That is why India has been bolstering its maritime defences. It has been heavily investing in stealth submarines, carrier frigates, and actively upgrading key naval bases along its coastlines and in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
India has also formed the Quad alliance with the US, Japan and Australia to ensure an open and free Indo-Pacific. Essentially creating a counter-balance to China in the region.
And China seems to be using the same strategy to create a counter-balance to India in the Indian sub-continent.
A China-led alliance of the South Asian nations could effectively isolate India in its own neighbourhood.
So, the Kuming meeting may have been projected as a routine event, but it signals a significant strategic shift in South Asia. And India is watching closely.
