Will he or won’t he?
As the annual NATO summit kicks off in The Hague, that seems to be a question on the minds of its member states. The freewheeling US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wouldn't protect NATO members who fail to meet defence spending targets.
On his way to the summit, Trump once again raised doubts about US commitment to the alliance's Article 5 - the mutual defence clause, when asked by reporters if would come to a member’s aid.
“Depends on your definition,” Trump told reporters. Adding that he’s become friends with many member nation’s leaders and that he’s committed “to helping them" as well as “to life and safety”.
NATO members though are doing their best to woo Trump at what seems to be a summit tailor-made for the alliance’s single biggest spender by a long distance. None more so than the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte who sent Trump a pre-summit message, lavishing heaps of praise on him.
Addressing Trump as “dear, Donald”, Rutte thanked Trump for his extraordinary decisive action in Iran, “something no one else dared to do”. Notably, Rutte told Trump that he is “flying into another big success in The Hague” and that despite difficulties “we've got them all signed on to five percent". That tone underlines how keen the alliance’s head, and most other western allies, are to ensure Trump stays on point.
So, what is the hullabaloo all about? Let’s break down what the 5% defence spending goal actually entails.
Rutte has been negotiating directly with Trump and other NATO leaders over the past few months. His goal? To convince the alliance’s 32 members to agree to a new target of 5% of GDP, a figure that Trump really likes.
Now, this is a big increase from the current goal of 2% of GDP, and amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars in extra defence spending. But fortunately, the 5% target is meant to be achieved over the next 10 years.
Countries would spend 3.5% of GDP on core defence - such as troops and weapons. A further 1.5% will be spent on broader defence-related measures -- such as cyber security, protecting pipelines and adapting roads and bridges to handle military vehicles. This gives Trump the win he craves while granting cash-strapped European governments some wriggle room.
So, have all 32 members agreed? Not quite. While 31 members have backed a statement enshrining the target, Spain has abstained.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said he would not block the 5% commitment, but neither would the nation meet the 5% goal. Madrid says it can meet its military commitments to NATO by spending much less - a view disputed by Rutte.
Beyond appeasing Trump, the increased spending is a direct response to Europe's fears that Russia poses an increasingly direct threat to their security. Especially since Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, on his part, has accused NATO of being on a path of rampant militarisation. He's questioned Russia’s portrayal as a "fiend of hell" in order to justify the higher defence spending.
Nevertheless, when the former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte took over as the head of NATO last year, his primary goal was clear: keep Donald Trump on board and happy. Now as he hosts his first NATO summit as boss, that too in his hometown, Rutte seems on the verge of a win-win.
