Why India wants to befriend the Taliban

$1 billion. That's the value of annual trade between India and Afghanistan, despite New Delhi refusing to recognise the Taliban's rule.

India is warming up to the Islamic regime across its northwestern border, amid rising military tensions with Pakistan and a long-running standoff with China.

After India's defence forces struck terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir under Operation Sindoor, India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar held a phone conversation with Taliban's Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

This was the first ministerial-level contact between the two countries since the Taliban's return to power.

The diplomatic engagement marks a 180-degree shift in India's historic stance against the Taliban.

Chapter: India vs Taliban: The History

Taliban first came to power in 1996, following the nine-year civil war that resulted in the ouster of the Soviet-backed communist regime.

India was wary of Taliban at the time. It viewed the Islamic group as a proxy for Pakistan's intelligence agencies, which supported the Islamic fighters against Russia.

India considered Taliban’s rise as a strategic move by Pakistan to gain influence in Afghanistan and counter Indian interests in the region.

Instead, India supported the Northern Alliance, which was a guerilla force backed by the US to resist Taliban.

New Delhi’s support to the alliance included military aid, such as high-altitude warfare equipment, helicopter technicians, medical services, and tactical advice.

But years of protracted battle left the anti-Taliban forces depleted, until US launched the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

When the Taliban were removed from power in 2001, India was among the first countries to recognise the new civilian government. New Delhi immediately reopened its Kabul embassy.

Between 2001 and 2021, India was one of the largest supporters and aid providers to Afghanistan's civilian government.

India had more than 500 projects spread across the country’s 34 provinces, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals, and clinics.

New Delhi soon became one of Kabul's biggest development partners, providing more than $3 billion in aid.

But India’s diplomatic efforts and financial investments suffered a major setback in 2021. The United States withdrew its troops, allowing the Taliban to overrun President Ashraf Ghani's elected government.

Chapter: India’s Pragmatic Approach

India's reaction was quick, and on expected lines. It evacuated its embassy in Kabul, and once again refused to recognise Taliban's rule in Afghanistan.

But, unlike the last time, India decided to engage with Taliban, first through backchannel negotiations and then with public engagements.

India reopened its embassy in Kabul in June 2022, and sent a team of ‘technical experts’ to run the mission. A Taliban representative, Ikramuddin Kamil, now operates out of the Afghan consulate in Mumbai.

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New Delhi also resumed visa services for Afghan nationals after a brief suspension following the Taliban's takeover.

And while India builds diplomatic ties with the Taliban, Pakistan’s relations with the Islamic group have soured.

Cross-border terrorism, deportation of Afghan refugees and recent Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory has put the Taliban at loggerheads with Islamabad.

For India, having Afghanistan on its side is important. Sandwiched between hostile neighbours, China and Pakistan, New Delhi seeks Taliban’s support to counter their influence in the region and safeguard its strategic interests.

India fears that Pakistan-based terror groups could use Afghanistan as a launchpad, if left unchecked. India cannot afford to open another war front, amid repeated ceasefire violations along the Line of Control with Pakistan and the Line of Actual Control with China.

Afghanistan also serves as the ‘Heart of Asia’, connecting Central and South Asia, and provides India access to Central Asian markets and resources.

In the interest of reducing Afghanistan's own dependence on Pakistan for trade, India has been actively nudging the Taliban to use the Chabahar port in Iran.

Meanwhile, New Delhi has to counter Beijing's investment blitz in Afghanistan. As one of the first countries to recognise the Taliban regime, China was able to get the new government's endorsement for its Belt and Road Initiative. The project seeks to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor westward through Central Asia.

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In 2023, Chinese companies signed a string of business deals with the Taliban government, including a 25-year oil extraction contract worth up to $540 million.

But, as New Delhi thaws relations with Taliban, Indian businesses have expressed interest in investing in Afghanistan. The Taliban have been open to striking agreements on mines, precious stones, and oil and gas. If the deals go through, India's influence in Kabul could extend beyond just soft power.

New Delhi's softening stance, and evolving diplomatic dynamic with the Taliban could prove crucial to its strategic interests and regional stability.