European politics has done it again. Poland has a new President, and boy oh boy was that race dramatic. In a spectacular turn of events - right-wing historian Karol Nawrocki has been elected Poland's new president.
According to the state electoral commission, PKW, Nawrocki won 50.9% of the votes – ahead of Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who got 49.1%.
It is dramatic because the final result marks a sensational turnaround from the result of the first exit poll published on Sunday night, immediately after voting ended. Trzaskowski had claimed victory after the poll showed him winning 50.3% of the votes to Nawrocki's 49.7%.
Nawrocki knew better though, and cautioned that the results were too close to call. Now, Poland is in for five years under Nawrocki's right-wing rule.
And that might not bode well for either NATO or the European Union.
Why Poland’s new President doesn’t like NATO and the EU
Now, Poland has been a NATO member since 1999, and became a full member of the EU in 2004. Though the memberships have never been in question, Nawrocki’s rise to Presidency will fuel the Polish right-wing’s anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric of today.
The main bone of contention being the three-year-plus war in neighbouring Ukraine, and the flood of Ukrainians seeking refuge. Though Nawrocki backs continued support for Kyiv, he does not want Ukraine joining NATO or the EU. He doesn't want Poland to be drawn into war with Moscow, in the name of Ukraine's defence. Nawrocki even promised during campaigns that government economic and social policies would favour Poles over other nationals, including Ukrainian refugees.
That's because Nawrocki is a strong supporter of Polish sovereignty within the EU.
Back in 2017, Poland had run afoul of the EU with a controversial series of judicial reforms. The national conservative Law and Justice party had introduced these reforms during its two terms in government from 2015 to 2023. Brussels claimed the reforms undermined the judiciary, and initiated Article 7 procedures against Poland to “protect the rule of law in Europe”.
Poland escaped punishment after the pro-EU government of Donald Tusk reversed the policy, but people like Nawrocki took offense and have not forgotten the EU’s perceived slight.
Nawrocki has repeatedly stated that he does not want the country to cede any more powers to Brussels, whilst also opposing the EU's climate and migration policies. No wonder then that Eurosceptic Nawrocki presented the ballot as a referendum on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European course versus the Donald Trump-style nationalism of the PiS party.
European right-wingers revel in Nawrocki’s victory
Right-wing forces in Europe, who were left disappointed by the defeat of nationalist George Simion in Romania’s presidential election last month, have been quick to start celebrating Nawrocki’s win.
Nawrocki’s win will likely mean that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as well as Slovakia's Robert Fico gain an ally in central Europe.
Taking to Facebook, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the result brought a “fresh victory for [European] patriots”.
NATO and the European Union have been duly warned.
