Did US completely destroy Iran’s nuclear programme with Sunday's surprise attacks?
Even though President Donald Trump claimed spectacular military success, there is little evidence that Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan were totally obliterated.
In fact, satellite images and expert analysis suggest damage to the sites, not complete destruction.
Let's take a closer look at the US operation, codenamed ‘Midnight Hammer,’ and the damage it did to Tehran's nuclear facilities.
Fordow
The main focus of US airstrikes was Fordow -- a nuclear facility carved into the Zagros Mountains in Qom. Reportedly, the enrichment facility is constructed beneath 45–90 meters of bedrock, largely limestone and dolomite.
Experts believe Fordow was constructed to withstand heavy ordnance attacks, with geological cushioning against a blast wave.
That's why US launched GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators at Fordow -- its first known use in combat.
The 13,000 kg (28,700 lb) bunker-buster bomb is said to be the most powerful conventional weapon in use today. It can penetrate 60 metre (200 feet) below ground and deliver up to 2,400 kg (5,300 lb) of explosives.
The GBU-57 is a precision-guided munition equipped with an integrated GPS/INS guidance package. This integrated system enables the bomb to strike within meters of its intended target.
The US used seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to drop 14 MOPs on at least two nuclear sites, most of them on Fordow.
Satellite images of Fordow, after the US airstrike, showed some parts of the mountain ridge flattened out, and evidence of rock scarring near two clusters of bomb craters. But, the main support building of the nuclear site, and other entrances appeared to be undamaged.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said they were unable to confirm the degree of damage underground.
Natanz
Located about 300 km south of Tehran, Natanz is Iran's primary nuclear site.
It reportedly consists of a Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and a Fuel Enrichment Plant. The PFEP is research facility used to assemble centrifuges and is located above ground, while the FEP is located deep beneath the ground.
Natanz was believed to house a thousand centrifuges, that enriched uranium up to 60%.
The power plant supplying to the main centrifuge hall was already damaged in the first Israeli strikes.
Though US did not confirm what weapons hit Natanz on Sunday, the attack seems to have targeted the underground enrichment hall.
Satellite images from the site showed additional damage to buildings, and fresh craters where the bombs struck.
Isfahan
The third target of US strikes was Isfahan -- an atomic research facility used for uranium conversion.
The US fired more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles at Isfahan from an Ohio-class submarine located in the Arabian Sea.
Tomahawk Land Attack Missile is a long-range, subsonic cruise missile, that can be launched from surface ships and submarines, using the Mk 41 Vertical Launch System.
The missile is 18.3 feet long, weighs 3,200 pounds, and carries a 1,000-pound conventional warhead or cluster munitions.
Satellite images obtained after the Tomahawk attack showed damage to six buildings, including a fuel rod production facility. Four others were already damaged in Israeli airstrikes.
Was Iran prepared for US strikes?
While physical damage is evident at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, no major radiation leak was reported at any of the sites.
According to Iranian state television, enriched uranium reserves had already been transferred out of the facilities and there was no material left to cause harmful radiation.
Satellite images showed heavy cargo trucks near the Fordow nuclear site three days before the US attacks -- supposed evidence that the facility was evacuated.
Earlier in June, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced another enrichment facility “in a secure and invulnerable location” that could house centrifuges. Experts say Iran might have transported its enriched stockpile to this undisclosed facility.
While the US and Israeli attacks might have disrupted operations at key nuclear sites, they are far from eliminating the technical advancements made by Iran's nuclear programme.
The question then is -- whether the attacks force Tehran to stop uranium enrichment, or push it closer to building a nuclear weapon.
