Violent protests, armed clashes between pro-government militias, and growing demands for the resignation of UN-backed Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah have brought back fears of a third civil war.
The unrest, centered around Libya’s capital city, Tripoli, has reignited in May, after Dbeibah ordered the dismantling of armed militias. This decree included the dissolution of the influential Stability Support Apparatus or SSA.
Notably, the group’s commander, Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, was killed by a rival militia. More than 70 civilians were killed in the resulting clashes between armed groups and pro-government forces.
The fighting ended after an undisclosed agreement between the militias and Dbeibah’s administration. But once the violence subsided, a wave of popular protests emerged. Protesters are demanding national elections and the drafting of a constitution—both of which have been pending since the Libyan Revolution of 2011.
An uprising against former Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi's four-decade rule, quickly escalated into a civil war in 2011, with the authoritarian regime brutally suppressing protests. Rebel forces united under the National Transitional Council, and took up arms against government forces.
With NATO support, the rebels eventually overthrew Gaddafi. But, Libya descended into chaos, soon after. A second civil war erupted in 2014, amid the political instability and power vacuum left by Gaddafi's death. This time, it was a conflict between rival governments based in the East and West.
The United Nations-backed Government of National Unity headquartered in Tripoli, in the West, and its rival, the House of Representatives based in Tobruk, in the East. In an effort to restore peace and stability, a UN-brokered permanent ceasefire divided the country into two.
In the East, the House of Representatives headed by Prime Minister Ossama Hammad is backed by former warlord-turned-politician Khalifa Haftar.
Haftar has managed to consolidate power by bringing various armed militias under his control. In contrast, the West under Dbeibah has tolerated multiple competing militias.
Observers believe that the recent fighting in Tripoli suggests Dbeibah, too, is now attempting to consolidate control over militias in the West.
But, here's the catch. Dbeibah's GNU was supposed to remain in power only until the next presidential election, initially scheduled for December 2021. However, the election was postponed indefinitely due to political disputes among Libya's leaders.
Amid popular calls for elections and the resignation of Dbeibah, the eastern militias under Haftar is reportedly assembling forces to launch a military offensive on Tripoli. The goal? Seizing control of the entire country. And that risks Libya slipping into a third civil war.
Meanwhile, the UN Mission in Libya has proposed four potential pathways to peaceful national unification.
One: immediately end of the transitional period by conducting presidential and legislative elections simultaneously.
Two: Hold parliamentary elections first, followed by the adoption of a permanent constitution.
Three: Adopt a permanent constitution before any elections.
And four: Establish a committee for political dialogue, based on the Libyan Political Agreement, to finalize electoral laws, executive authority, and a permanent constitution.
Amid rising calls for long-delayed general elections, will Libya finally achieve the hard-fought democracy? Or will territorial ambitions of rival governments push Libya back into civil war?
