The new Syrian government lead by President Ahmed al-Sharaa reportedly has mobilised over 50,000 fighters towards the SDF-controlled area in Northern Syria.
Ahmed al-Sharaa is reportedly planning an assault on Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor that's been under the control of Syrian Democratic Forces since the Assad regime. This after negotiations between SDF's Kurdish leaders and the HTS government stalled.
Earlier this month, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa had said he wanted the integration of Northern Syria and its military into the state machinery without violence.
But Damascus refused to participate in meetings with the SDF which were to be held in France this month.
The meeting was planned to discuss an agreement al-Sharaa signed with Kurdish leaders in March this year, aimed at integrating the country and ending the violence.
The Syrian government said it was refusing to participate in protest of the Hasaka Conference organized by Kurdish leaders. The conference was attended by loyalists of former President Bashar al-Assad.
Tensions between the Syrian government and Kurdish leaders have escalated ever since. Leaders from both sides have been accusing each other of provocation along the frontline.
Fighters from both sides have exchanged gunfire occasionally. Earlier this month, a government soldier was killed in clashes with the SDF in Aleppo province.
Civil war ahead?
But, just just days before reports of a potential assault on SDF-controlled areas, Sharaa reiterated hopes of reaching an agreement with the Kurds.
Turns out, even as Sharaa called for negotiations, the president was already preparing for a war with the US-backed Kurdish faction.
The Syrian government will reportedly launch an assault on Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor if Kurdish leaders refuse to hand over the two governorates.
The Syrian government’s military has been preparing for the assault on Raqqa near the town of Rasafah. To take Deir ez-Zor, the Syrian army is assembling in the town of Sukhnah.
Experts argue that Syrian government forces will likely be joined by Turkey-backed militia in the governorate of Aleppo. These groups will mobilise against SDF positions east of the Euphrates, near the Tishreen Dam. The Aleppo-based factions will act once the Syrian government forces launch the attack.
Notably, Turkey—one of the main backers of the current government in Syria—sees the SDF as a threat to its national security.
Military strategists believe that Ankara will also help the Syrian army in the attack against the SDF.
So, can Sharaa take the two governorates from the Kurds by military force? Although the Syrian army has an upper hand against the SDF, the militant group has some 100,000 battle-hardened fighters.
Sharaa fears that an assault on Kurdish areas might fail, the government forces were force to back down in the Druze-dominated Suwayda.
Syrian forces had to pull back after Israel came to the rescue of the Druze and launched airstrikes against Damascus.
So, Sharaa want to make sure Israel does not get drawn into the conflict with Kurds, and support the SDF in the north.
Syria is also reportedly waiting for US backing for the military operation against Kurdish fighters, historically backed by Washington.
There's also another factor to be considered. Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor have overwhelmingly Arab tribal populations. There are reports that Arab fighters within the SDF might defect and join Sharaa’s forces.
Experts argue that Syrian forces might witness fast gains in the initial phase if they launch an attack against the Kurds.
However, the new Syrian government has not been able to unite the country. There are a considerable number of voices against the government forces.
Syrian citizens have accused government forces of targeting minorities like Alawites, Christians, and Druze. There have been reports of state brutality and mass killings of minorities since Sharaa came to power.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that over 1,700 Alawites were killed by government forces in March. In Suwayda, over 1,100 people were killed in sectarian violence.
There are also many armed Assad regime loyalist forces who have occasionally launched assaults against Sharaa’s forces.
Experts argue that the attack on Kurdish forces could have a ripple effect. Armed groups in other parts of the country might launch attacks on the Syrian army and stretch it thin.
So, as Sharaa prepares for an attack to take Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, the question remains: will he succeed—or push Syria into another civil war?
