UK, France and Germany 'snapback’ sanctions on Iran under nuclear deal

Britain, France, and Germany have triggered the “snapback” of sanctions on Iran. United Nations sanctions that have been suspended since 2015 are on course to return within 30 days.

The snapback mechanism was the ultimate weapon given to the West as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and the E3 nations have activated it.

Iran has been working hard to avoid this very scenario. Tehran has participated in multiple rounds of talks with members of the E3; the UK, France and Germany.

The latest meeting was in Switzerland on Tuesday. After the meeting, Iran reiterated its commitment to diplomacy, and asked the E3 to give the process more time.

Tehran also accepted one of the E3’s key demands. It allowed inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, back into the country. This is their first visit since Israel and the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.

But it wasn’t enough, as the E3 also wants Iran to restart nuclear talks with the US, and they want Iran to reveal the location of their enriched uranium stockpile.

This is the very stockpile that the Americans tried to destroy with its airstrikes in June, so Iran has been hesitant about revealing its whereabouts. So, despite the IAEA visit, the E3 nations decided to trigger the “snapback”.

UN Sanctions on Iran

Between 2006 and 2010 the United Nations Security Council passed multiple resolutions targeting Iran’s nuclear programme. The UNSC was afraid that Iran was trying to build nuclear weapons. So, they kept imposing sanctions, to force Tehran to stop enriching Uranium. Even though Iran insisted that its nuclear programme was for civilian use.

The UN sanctions were supposed to target Iran’s nuclear programme and its ballistic missile development. They were meant to stop countries from providing nuclear technology and weapons to Iran. But in reality, the sanctions strangled all trade to and from the country.

The UN sanctions enabled the West to target Iran’s oil sales. Western nations said that the proceeds from the oil were used to fund Iran’s nuclear programme. So, countries that bought Iranian oil faced so-called secondary sanctions.

This caused a sharp decline in Iran’s oil revenue. And it wasn’t just oil. The West stopped countries from buying Iranian fruits, nuts, carpets and almost everything else. The results were devastating for Iran’s economy.

But in 2015, there was a glimmer of hope. Iran and the West signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal.

What are Snapback Sanctions?

The Iran Nuclear Deal, or JCPOA, effectively invalidated six UN resolutions targeting Iran’s nuclear programme. But the Western signatories wanted a way to bring the sanctions back if Iran violated the terms of the deal.

They were also wary of Russia and China’s veto powers, as members of the UNSC. Russia and China have historically supported Iran against the West, so the US and the Europeans wanted to ensure that the reimposition of sanctions could not be blocked.

To get around the veto, the dealmakers came up with the “snapback” mechanism. Normally, the UNSC needs to vote on a resolution to impose sanctions. But the Iran nuclear deal reversed the situation. The six earlier UN resolutions and sanctions on Iran are treated as though they are paused, not cancelled.

When the “snapback” mechanism is activated, the Iran nuclear deal signatories vote on whether or not to continue sanctions relief. They don’t vote on imposing sanctions because, technically, the old sanctions are already in place.

This is a legal trick. By making the vote about sanctions relief, no country can veto it. Iran's friends would like the sanctions relief to continue, so they cannot use their vetoes. Meanwhile, the West can cancel the relief, causing the sanctions to snap back into place. Hence the nickname, “snapback”.

The “snapback” mechanism is a powerful tool, and the West was in a hurry to use it. Because it stops being valid on October 18. That’s the date that the Iran nuclear deal officially expires. After that, it would require a whole UNSC discussion and vote to impose new sanctions on Iran. And of course, Russia and China would be able to use their vetoes again.

The West also wanted to use the snapback provision before October, when Russia takes up the UNSC presidency. They were afraid that Moscow would use its presidency to cause procedural delays. And if the snapback mechanism wasn't activated before October 18, it would cease to exist. Activating the snapback requires 30 days. That's why the West triggered it right now.

Impact of Sanctions on Iran

So, how will the return of sanctions affect Iran? That is debatable. Because technically, the sanctions have been back for years. In 2018, the US unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal.

This was during Donald Trump’s first term as President. After withdrawing from the deal, Trump began a policy of Maximum Pressure on Iran. This meant almost all the sanctions were put back in place.

It was just the US imposing sanctions on Iran, not the UN. But the effect was the same. Iran’s economy crashed. Trade dried up again. Foreign investment stopped. Trump took a wrecking ball to the Iranian economy. And the E3 just stood by and let it happen.

They made a symbolic gesture of defiance. They didn’t allow the US to activate the snapback mechanism back in 2020.

They said that because Trump exited the nuclear deal, the US no longer had the power to use the snapback. But the effects were the same irrespective. Iran’s economy collapsed, and ordinary people suffered. So, for most Iranians, the snapback activation probably won’t change much.

The real effect of the UN sanctions will likely be felt by Iran’s major trading partners, Russia and China. One of the key UN sanctions was an arms embargo. Countries could not buy weapons from or sell them to Iran.

But that embargo was lifted in 2015 because of the Iran nuclear deal. Both China and Russia have arms dealings with Iran. And they have resisted attempts to reinstate the embargo. But once the UN sanctions snap back, the arms trade might grind to a halt.

Russia might ignore the embargo, seeing as it is drowning in sanctions itself. But China might have to rethink its dealings. Both in arms and in oil. American secondary sanctions still mean something to Chinese companies. So, they will have to choose between Iran and access to the US market. Almost every other country has made the fiscally prudent choice.

Now that the E3 has triggered the snapback mechanism, there are only a few options left for Iran and its friends. They have 30 days to get the E3 to stop the snapback. Russia is reportedly working on a proposal to extend the snapback deadline by 6 months. China might also join the Russian proposal.

Extending the snapback deadline would mean that the Europeans don’t lose their cudgel on October 18. So, they might rescind their snapback decision.

Iran would also get more time to negotiate a compromise. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has already sent a letter saying that Iran is ready to resume “fair” nuclear talks if the West shows goodwill.

Western nations keep saying that diplomacy is still on the table. But they have started the snapback countdown. Can a fair diplomatic solution really be found?