Pakistan and Afghanistan are on the brink of war. Islamabad has conducted multiple airstrike’s on Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.
The first stike on October 9 was to neutralise Noor Wali Mehsud, the head of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Afghanistan’s Taliban ruler retaliated on October 11, by launching multiple attacks all along the Durand Line; the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Pakistan hit back, claiming to have killed 200 Taliban and TTP fighters. In the days that have followed, Pakistan and Afghanistan have fought multiple skirmishes along the border, despite repeated truces and ceasefires. The heart of the problem is the Taliban’s alleged harbouring of their Pakistani brethren, the TTP.
The TTP is a UN-designated terrorist group. It has also been designated one by Pakistan, the US, the UK, China, Russia, Iran and a few other nations.
The TTP was officially formed in 2007. But its roots go back to 2001. To the US war in Afghanistan. The US was devastating Afghanistan in its hunt for Osama bin Laden. Hundreds of fighters from both al-Qaeda and the Taliban fled the country to escape the American bombardment.
Many chose to cross the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border. On Pakistan’s side of the border, you have the Pathan-majority province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
And up till 2018, you also had a Pathan enclave there. It was known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or FATA.
The FATA region was nominally under Pakistan’s control, but in reality, it was a semi-autonomous region governed by the local Pashtun or Pathan tribes. Pakistan’s army hadn’t exercised control in the FATA since the country’s independence. Meaning, the region was extremely porous.
Pathans or Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand line would cross it freely. Militants from Afghanistan took advantage of this situation back in 2001, to escape the American invasion. And this set off a chain of events that resulted in the formation of the TTP.
The US conducted airstrikes in the FATA to kill al-Qaeda operatives. Washington also pressured Islamabad to join its so-called “War on Terror”.
So by 2002, the Pakistani army was encroaching on the historically autonomous region, to help the US war effort. Collateral damage from American attacks.
The incursion by Pakistani troops. Both these things bred resentment among the Pathans of the FATA. They organised into multiple armed factions to push both the US and Pakistan out. Eventually, in 2007, many of these groups merged to form the TTP.
The TTP was made up of Pathans or Pashtuns like the Afghan Taliban. They were armed and trained by both Taliban and al-Qaeda militants who had fled Afghanistan. The group was also influenced by the ideology these militants brought.
The result was that the TTP declared war against the Pakistani government, aiming to overthrow it and form an Islamic Emirate like the one that had just collapsed in Afghanistan.
The war between the TTP and Pakistan claimed thousands of lives. The TTP resorted to suicide bombings to kill Pakistani security personnel, and also members of Pakistan’s religious minorities.
Pakistan’s establishment negotiated a number of ceasefires with the TTP, but none of them held. Eventually, in 2014, the Pakistani army began an all-out offensive against the TTP called Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
Over the course of about three years, the Pakistani army managed to almost completely eradicate the TTP presence from its soil. Islamabad managed to take firm control of the FATA. The cost was dire. About a million people were internally displaced during the operation.
The TTP leadership was forced to flee. And this time, in a reversal of the 2001 situation, they crossed the border and set up camp in Afghanistan, which are allegedly still in use. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of turning a blind eye to the TTP’s activities, and allowing the group to use Afghan soil to launch attacks on Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, referred to the TTP activities in Afghanistan just hours before Pakistan bombed the Afghan capital, Kabul, on October 9. Islamabad's actions were too bold for Kabul to ignore. The following day, the Taliban struck back.
On Saturday, October 11, at about 10 PM local time, Taliban forces and allied militias attacked Pakistani positions all along the Durand Line. There were clashes at Chitral, Dir, Bajaur, Kurram, Angoor Adda. There was also an attack at Bahram Chah in Balochistan.
The following day, the Taliban government spokesperson said that 58 Pakistani soldiers had been killed, and 20 border posts had been captured, along with Pakistani arms and equipment. The Taliban claimed they had lost 9 fighters, with a further 16 to 18 injured.
Pakistan however said that they had neutralised 200 Taliban and affiliated fighters. They also claimed that 23 of their soldiers died, not 58 like Afghanistan had claimed.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have shut all border crossings. And they have increased patrols. The situation is tense. There have been reports of sporadic clashes over the last few days, with another wave of attacks along the border on October 15.
Pakistan and the Taliban are due to negotiate a truce in Qatar’s capital, Doha, but fighting may keep flaring up, because the underlying problem hasn’t been resolved.
As long as the TTP continues to operate out of Afghanistan, Pakistan is unlikely to stop its attacks. And the Afghan Taliban can’t throw their Pakistani brethren to the wolves. That could lead to widespread discontent in Afghanistan, and it may weaken the Taliban’s grip on power. So, the Taliban's hands seem to be tied.
Meanwhile, Islamabad may get emboldened after its latest offensives. Pakistan may conduct more strikes inside Afghanistan, knowing that it has the edge when it comes to conventional warfare.
If a major war does break out, it is ordinary civilians in both countries who will bear the brunt. They will be collateral damage. So, for their sake, let’s hope that peace prevails.
