With his surprise announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump has turned his flair for social media into diplomatic deftness, despite continued uncertainty in the Middle East.
Israel, Iran and Trump himself all declared victory after 12 days of conflict that culminated Saturday in the United States bombing Iran's key nuclear sites.
After facing criticism -- even within his base -- for breaking his campaign promises against military intervention abroad, Trump was able to show a quick way out, and to portray himself, despite the bombing, as a peacemaker.
"I don't think the Israeli government was able to sustain a long-term war, but I think the main factor here was President Trump. He did not want to see a new war in the region break out under his watch," said Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"That is what changed the calculation for Israel and for Iran as well."
Trump startled even close aides and allies by announcing the ceasefire on social media late Monday -- the middle of the night in the Middle East -- just after Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar, in what appeared to be a choreographed response as the rockets were easily shot down.
Trump chose not to retaliate against Iran and on Tuesday, returned to his electronic bully pulpit to urge Israel to abort new attacks on Iran.
Iran needed an off-ramp as it suffered its worst assault since the 1980-88 war with Iraq. Trump also appeared to offer incentives to sanctions-bound Iran by suggesting an easing of US pressure on China to stop buying Iranian oil.
Israel's military, while proving itself to be the region's strongest, has been stretched by campaigns in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, and with Iranian strikes this month, the Israeli population endured the most prolonged, deadly air attacks seen in decades.
After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Trump's intervention, the president's warning Tuesday likely also showed him the limits to US support, Todman said.
Also read: Iran-Israel ceasefire raises hope, doubts over Gaza’s future remain
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by HOOK Desk and is published from a syndicated feed AFP.)
