In the blistering summers of India, where temperatures routinely soar past 45°C, the nation braces itself with water bottles, ceiling fans, and power cuts. While the country talks about heatstroke symptoms and record temperatures, a more uncomfortable truth remains ignored: we don’t know how many people the heat is killing. Despite the increasing intensity and frequency of heatwaves, India’s official death tolls remain mysteriously low on paper. The reality, experts warn, is far grimmer—and hidden in a broken data system that fails to capture the full impact of this slow-burning disaster.
A Deadly Heatwave. A Data Black Hole
India is no stranger to scorching summers. But as heatwaves become longer, deadlier, and more frequent, one critical question remains unanswered:
How many people are actually dying from extreme heat?
The disturbing answer is—we don’t really know.
Three central government agencies track heat-related deaths, but their numbers differ widely:
- National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC): 3,812 deaths reported between 2015 and 2022. This data is based on health ministry reports through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) and often undercounts due to reporting gaps.
- India Meteorological Department (IMD): Recorded 3,436 deaths in the same period. Their figures are compiled from media reports and state disaster authorities.
- National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB): Claimed over 8,171 deaths between 2015 and 2022. NCRB data is based on police reports of unattended deaths classified as “accidental deaths from forces of nature,” generally yielding higher numbers.
Newer data from 2023 and early 2024 only deepens confusion. In 2024, the Union Ministry of Health reported 360 heatstroke deaths across India. But an independent non-profit, HeatWatch, tracked 733 deaths from media reports in just 17 states—more than double the official count. Nationwide, over 40,000 heatstroke cases were reported during this period.The disparity is stark. States like Odisha and Rajasthan reported dozens of fatalities. Meanwhile, others—like Andhra Pradesh—claimed zero deaths, citing improved heat mitigation. But experts say this also reflects inconsistent definitions, patchy surveillance, and pressure to underreport.
Why the Confusion? A System Stuck in the Past
At the root of this chaos is an outdated, largely manual system. Many hospitals still rely on paper registers. Autopsy reports often go unshared between departments. Deaths caused by heatstroke are frequently recorded as “heart attack,” “natural causes,” or simply “unattended death.”
Between 2020 and 2022, several large states—including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu—reported zero heatstroke deaths. Yet doctors on the ground tell a very different story.
What Doctors Are Seeing
Pulmonologists, emergency physicians, and general practitioners in major cities report sharp spikes in heatstroke, dehydration, and multi-organ failure cases during extreme heat spells. However, because most victims come from vulnerable, low-income backgrounds—often working outdoors or living in informal settlements—their deaths rarely make it into official records.
Without mandatory autopsies or proper cause-of-death reporting, these deaths simply disappear from the data.
A Silent Epidemic, Fueled by Denial
Unlike infectious diseases, heat-related deaths don’t occur in clusters or outbreaks. They suffocate quietly, disproportionately affecting the elderly, outdoor laborers, daily wage workers, and the poor.
Experts warn that India’s refusal to reckon with heatwave deaths is not merely a data flaw—it is a policy failure. Without accurate data, there is no urgency, no compensation for victims’ families, and no effective heat action plan.
The Real Scale: Excess Deaths and Thermal Injustice
According to a study by Environmental International the estimate that a single five-day heatwave can cause approximately 30,000 excess deaths in India. With multiple heatwaves each summer, the total excess deaths could easily surpass 150,000 annually—far exceeding official figures.
This “thermal injustice” hits the most marginalized hardest yet remains invisible in government statistics.
What Can Be Done?
There are no quick fixes, but systemic changes can make a significant difference:
- Digitize death reporting: Implement mandatory electronic death registration with standardized cause-of-death coding and mandatory autopsy data sharing across health, police, and disaster departments.
- Launch heat death audits: Conduct detailed investigations of heat-related deaths in high-risk states to understand patterns and improve reporting accuracy.
- Train healthcare workers: Educate doctors and hospital staff to correctly diagnose and record heatstroke and heat-related illnesses as causes of death.
- Run awareness campaigns: Target outdoor workers and vulnerable communities with information on heat risks, symptoms, and prevention strategies.
- Treat heatwaves as a public health emergency: Move beyond viewing heatwaves as seasonal inconveniences to recognizing them as a major climate-driven health threat requiring coordinated government action.
India Can’t Afford to Stay Blind
Climate experts warn that 2025 could be one of India’s hottest years yet. Early heatwave alerts have already been issued, with temperatures exceeding 45°C in parts of northern and central India.
Yet India is entering this summer with a blindfold on. Because a death that isn’t counted is a death we’ll never prevent.
When the system looks away, heat won’t be the only killer—denial will be too.
