The Vanishing Third Child | Open Magazine Special

New fertility data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021 confirms a marked shift in India’s reproductive patterns: the third child is becoming statistically rare. In urban areas, third-order births now account for less than 7 percent of all live births.

The report reaffirms several long-term demographic shifts: a sustained decline in India’s fertility rate, a narrowing rural-urban gap in birth patterns, and a growing preference for institutional deliveries and spaced births. Nationwide, third-order births comprise just 9 percent of the total. Fourth and higher-order births make up another 4.9 percent. Together, these categories—which once defined the Indian household—now account for barely 14 percent of all births. In comparison, first and second-order births account for 60.6 and 25.5 percent, respectively.

This marks a major departure from the past. In 2001, third-order births made up 17.3 percent of the national total. By 2011, that figure had fallen to 13.3 percent. In the last decade, it has dropped by nearly a third. In some parts of the country, the decline is even more pronounced. Kerala recorded just 2.4 percent of births as third order and 0.3 percent as fourth or higher.

Tamil Nadu follows at 31.6 percent. In much of the South and West, second births outnumber third and fourth combined. These shifts appear to be driven by behaviour rather than enforcement. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which do not have a two-child policy, show steeper declines in third births than states like Assam or Uttar Pradesh, where such policies have prevailed.

This suggests that voluntary family planning, increased spacing, and rising costs of childrearing are more effective levers than law. The SRS data also reveals that most second and third births are spaced by more than three years. Over 50 percent of such births nationwide occur after a gap of 36 months or more, which is clear evidence of planned fertility. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the proportion of spaced births is significantly higher. One lingering asymmetry is gender-based. In northern states like Haryana and Rajasthan, the third child is more often a boy, particularly when the first two are girls. This reflects a primitive yet prevalent preference for a son, but even in these regions, the overall frequency of third births is falling.

Excerpts from ‘The Vanishing Third Child’ published in OPEN Magazine on 19th May 2025.
Read more here: https://openthemagazine.com/special/the-vanishing-third-child/