U.S tariffs push China to its worst growth forecast yet, says UBS

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Newsdesk
15 APR 2025 | 08:11:07
China’s economy is facing its worst growth forecast in years—just 3.4% in 2025. UBS says tariffs are choking exports, and the pain isn’t over yet.
China’s exports to the US could plummet by two-thirds.

UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup are all slashing their forecasts. They warn that the tariff shock could push China’s GDP down by over 2 percentage points.

Beijing may respond with fiscal stimulus, but with global tariffs rising, the road ahead looks uncertain. China’s economy is in for a rough ride—the question is, will the stimulus be enough?

China's economy likely grew 5.1% in Q1 on export surge: AFP poll

China is expected to post first-quarter growth of around five percent on Wednesday, buoyed by exporters rushing to stave off higher US tariffs but still weighed by sluggish domestic consumption, analysts say.

Beijing and Washington are locked in a fast-moving, high-stakes game of brinkmanship since US President Donald Trump launched a global tariff assault that has particularly targeted Chinese imports.

Tit-for-tat exchanges have seen US levies imposed on China rise to 145 percent, and Beijing setting a retaliatory 125 percent toll on US imports.

Official data Wednesday will offer a first glimpse into how those trade war fears are affecting the Asian giant's fragile economic recovery, which was already feeling the pressure of persistently low consumption and a property market debt crisis.

Analysts polled by AFP forecast the world's number two economy to have grown 5.1 percent from January to March -- down from 5.4 the previous quarter.

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