Kazakhstan, the muslim-majority Central Asian nation, is set to join the US-brokered Abraham Accords - the 2020 framework that seeks to formalise relations between Israel and Arab countries.
But here’s the twist - Kazakhstan has had full and prosperous diplomatic relations with Israel for over 33 years now. Being part of the Accords doesn't really change anything for either nation.
So, why all the brouhaha?
Geopolitical observers believe that US President Donald Trump is trying to kill two birds with one stone.
One - Make the Abraham Accords Great Again.
Trump wants to prove that the Abraham Accords “brand” is still alive and kicking - especially given that Trump really wants Saudi Arabia to join it. At an economic conference in Miami, Trump claimed “a lot of people” are joining the Abraham Accords. He hoped Saudi Arabia would be one of them, very soon.
Saudi joining the Accords -- and recognising Israel's right to exist -- would be a gamechanger, given the influence that the Kingdom wields over the Arab world.
Second - Trump really wants to poke a finger in the eye of Chinese and Russian ambitions in the Eurasian space.
The C5 -- or the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- hold deep reserves of rare earth minerals. Moreover it produces roughly half the world’s uranium, critical to nuclear power production. But the region badly needs investment to further develop the resources - something that China and Russia are more than willing to provide in exchange for access.
Now, geographically, Kazakhstan is sandwiched between Russia and China. So naturally, its critical mineral exports have long tilted toward the two world superpowers.
Trump wants to change that. And Kazakhstan is only too happy to have more economic partners, in particular - a more active relationship with the US and Europe.
Most believe joining the Accords is just Kazakhstan’s way of currying favour with Trump. They hope the positive attention from Washington will help catalyse more concrete economic interest in Kazakhstan from US government agencies and the private sector. As for Trump, he's getting the rare earth minerals that he so badly wants. The US has signed a critical minerals cooperation deal with C5.
So, maybe Kazakhstan joining the Abraham Accords might be more about US strategic interests in Central Asia than Israel’s diplomatic ties.
