10 Tests. 1 target - The World Test Championship final. The question everyone’s asking is simple: how many of these remaining games does Team India need to win to qualify for the WTC final? Let’s break it down with clarity.
As things stand, India sit 4th on the WTC points table with a points percentage (PCT) of 54.17. But with 10 Tests still to be played, their destiny is far from sealed. What matters now is the fixture list and how many of these India can convert into results.
India's upcoming Test Series
India’s remaining journey starts with the final Test against South Africa in Guwahati. After that, they hit the road for a 2-match Test series in Sri Lanka, followed by 2 more Tests in New Zealand - a notoriously tricky venue for subcontinent teams. But the real decider will be the last series: a blockbuster 5-match home series against Australia, a clash that could make or break India’s WTC campaign.
The WTC Final Math
If India win 5 of the remaining 10 Tests, they finish with 112 points and a 51.85% PCT - nowhere near enough. Winning 6 takes them to a 57.41% PCT - still not safe.
A 7-win finish gives India 62.96%, getting them closer but not comfortably into the top two.
The magic zone begins at 8 wins, which lifts India to 68.52% - right in line with last cycle’s qualifiers.
Winning 9 pushes India to a commanding 74.07%, and a clean sweep of all 10 Tests skyrockets them to 79.63%, which would safely book a ticket to the final.
But why is the 8-win benchmark so important? Because last time, the top two teams qualified with 69.4% and 67.5% PCT. India reaching 68.52% puts them squarely in that neighbourhood, making 8 wins the most realistic qualification goal.
But here’s the twist - India may not need a perfect 8. The WTC table is fluid, and other teams’ results will directly impact the cutoff. A few unexpected losses for rivals could reduce the requirement.
Still, one thing is crystal clear: the immediate Test against South Africa and that 5-match Australia series at home will be the defining stretch of India’s campaign. Win big there, and the WTC final is within reach. Slip up, and the door narrows fast. With 10 Tests to go, India has the roadmap; now it’s all about execution.
