Can India Still Qualify for the World Test Championship Final? Let’s Do the Math. Half the campaign is done. India sit 5th on the WTC table with a points percentage of 48.15, and the most uncomfortable part? Even Pakistan are above us. This is no longer a phase. It’s a warning siren.
The road ahead is extremely challenging, but Team India is still “technically” in the race. But history isn’t kind to teams that crawl into the final. The cold truth is simple: to qualify, you need to win around 60–65% of your matches. No shortcuts. No emotional escapes.
To reach that threshold, a team needs at least 130 points. As far as India is concerned, we now require 78 more points from our remaining 9 Tests. So how does that happen?
Scenario 1
A win earns 12 points, and a draw gives 4 points. Based on this system, if India wins 6 and draws 2 of its remaining 9 Tests, it would collect 72 points from wins and 8 from draws, making a total of 80 points. That would take India’s final tally to 132 points - barely over the line.
Scenario 2
The other, even tougher possibility is winning 7 of the remaining 9 Tests. That would give India 84 points and push the total to 136. No room for comfort, no off days, no excuses. And here’s where fantasy meets reality, because realistically, this is far from simple, given the stiff competition that lies ahead.
India will next travel to Sri Lanka for a 2-Test series, where we boast an excellent record, having won 5 of our last 6 Tests there.
After that, Team India heads to New Zealand for another 2-match away series - a country where we have not won a single Test across our last two tours.
Then comes the real test: a 5-match home Test series against Australia. Let’s assume for a moment that India manage to win all 4 Tests in Sri Lanka and New Zealand. Even then, they would still need a significant haul of points from those five Tests against Australia.
So let’s call it what it is. This isn’t a chase. It’s a tightrope walk over a storm. One slip, and the WTC final is gone. The margin for error is not thin - it doesn’t exist. Every session from here on could define the future of this campaign.
Yes, qualification is still mathematically possible. But emotionally? Mentally? Practically? India is not chasing the WTC final anymore; they are fighting to prove they still belong in the conversation.
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