Thailand’s Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is in trouble. Her government is on the brink of collapse, because of a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former Prime Minister, Hun Sen, to resolve a border dispute.

Thai and Cambodian troops had clashed at a disputed border area on May 28. One Cambodian soldier was killed in the clash. This has led to widespread outrage in Cambodia. Thousands recently took to the streets carrying Cambodian flags. They lauded their soldiers, and denounced Thailand.

Tensions are running high. Cambodia and Thailand have engaged in a series of tit-for-tat moves, such as closing border checkpoints and shortening visas for one another's citizens. Cambodia has even banned the import of fruits from Thailand, and banned Thai movies and TV shows.

It is amid these spiralling tensions that Paetongtarn Shinawatra reached out to Cambodia’s former Prime Minister, Hun Sen. Hun Sen ruled Cambodia for almost 40 years, before handing over power to his son, Hun Manet, in 2023. Hun Sen still holds a firm grip on Cambodian politics. Paetongtarn reached out to him to try and resolve the tensions. It’s the audio of that conversation that was leaked.

Paetongtarn spoke to Hun Sen cordially and informally. She referred to him as “uncle,” and asked him to sympathise with his “niece”. She also made disparaging remarks about a military leader, which has opened her up to criticisms of undermining Thailand’s armed forces. Hun Sen recorded the conversation, and shared it with some Cambodian politicians. He says one of them leaked a 9-minute clip of the recording. Hun Sen himself later released the entire audio on Facebook.

The breach has left Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s Prime Ministership on thin ice. Hundreds have been protesting, demanding her ouster. The second-largest party in Thailand’s ruling coalition has exited the alliance, leaving Paetongtarn with a narrow majority. If another partner leaves, her government could collapse. Will Paetongtarn Shinawatra be able to protect her less-than-a-year-old premiership? Or is Thailand headed for its fourth Prime Minister in 2 years? Or worse, will Thailand’s military stage yet another coup?

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Will a leaked phone call lead to the downfall of Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister?

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