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Clarence Mendoza

Explained | Why the Earth is warmer than ever before & Net Zero is the only glimmer of hope

Explained | Why the Earth is warmer than ever before & Net Zero is the only glimmer of hope
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Imagine attending a funeral at 5,000 m above sea level. That is exactly what transpired in Nepal this week as dozens trekked to the Langtang Valley in northern Nepal to hold a funeral ceremony for the rapidly disappearing Yala glacier that has shrunk 66% since 1974. With the WMO confirming that 2024 was the warmest year on record - are we on track for the targets set as part of 2015’s Paris Agreement. Hook tells you what’s what.

Dozens trekked to the Langtang Valley in northern Nepal this week to hold a funeral ceremony for the rapidly disappearing Yala glacier.

Memorial plaques were unveiled, prayer flags fluttered and Buddhist monks performed rituals as glaciologists and local communities mourned its loss.

The Yala glacier, located between 5,170 and 5,750 metres above sea level, has shrunk 66% since 1974. That's according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.

Scientists warn the glacier may disappear by the 2040s if global warming continues at the current pace.

But, Yala will not be the first. Glaciers have been declared "dead" in Mexico, the United States and Switzerland.

Warmest year on record: The threat of climate change

The above funerals are a reminder of the threat of climate change.

The world marked near-record high global temperatures in April, according to Europe's climate monitor. In its latest bulletin, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said that April was the second-hottest ever. Worse? 21 of the last 22 months exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In fact, the World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, at about 1.55°C above the late 19th century average. That's already above the warming limit enshrined in the Paris agreement, beyond which catastrophic climate events are more likely.

Even the more conservative estimate by NASA pegs global warming at 1.3 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2024.

The impact of the rising temperatures across the world

Just between 2000 and 2023, glaciers outside the major ice-sheets of Greenland and Antarctica lost around 270 billion tonnes of ice a year on average.

To put that into context - the 270 billion tonnes of ice lost in a single year adds up to the water consumption of the entire global population in 30 years. Antarctica at the South Pole alone has about 90% of the world’s ice. The ice covering is around 7,000 feet thick and extends to almost 14 million square kilometers. If all this ice melted, the sea would rise by 200 feet!

And mind you, just a six feet rise in sea levels will inundate coastal areas of every continent. Cairo, Lagos, Maputo, Bangkok, Dhaka, Jakarta, Mumbai, Shanghai, Copenhagen, London, Los Angeles, New York, Buenos Aires and Santiago are at risk. Add to that the climate consequences. Remember the wildfires of California and South Korea, or the floods in Europe and Africa? That's just in the last year.

But, we still have time to mitigate climate change, and bring global warming below 1.5 degrees. That means the world has to get to net-zero emissions by 2050.

What is ‘Net Zero’?

Put simply, net zero means cutting carbon emissions to negligible amounts. Cut them down to residual emissions that can be absorbed by nature or removed from the atmosphere using emerging technologies.

Emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030, in order to reach Net Zero by 2050.

That means cutting down the burning of fossil fuels that contributes to around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions today.

Replacing polluting coal, gas and oil-fired power with energy from renewable sources, such as wind or solar, would dramatically reduce carbon emissions.

But energy transition commitments made by the 196 signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement would lead to a mere 2.6% decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, far behind the goal of 45%.

Most of the emissions come from just a few countries.

Biggest offenders

The United States, China, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Brazil are the six largest greenhouse gas emitters. These six alone accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023.

By contrast, the 45 least developed countries accounted for only 3%.

No shock then that these countries were among those that failed to submit plans to help limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, or at most 2°C.

While President Donald Trump continues to live in denial and calls climate change a hoax, India is leading the Global South to demand developed countries pay for climate mitigation plans.

The standoff has set back climate action and progress by years. Let's hope glaciers melting in their backyards, ravaging wildfires and floods, finally prompt action.

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