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Geopolitics
Aman Butani

What India's suspension of Indus Water Treaty means for Pakistan

What India's suspension of Indus Water Treaty means for Pakistan
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India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, an agreement in place since 1960 to share river waters. India controls upstream flow and may limit water to Pakistan, which relies heavily on rivers like the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. This could impact Pakistan’s water supply, agriculture, and economy, especially amid existing water scarcity concerns.

For more than six decades, the Indus Water Treaty helped manage river-sharing between India and Pakistan. Even during wars and political tensions, the agreement remained in place. But following the recent Pahalgam incident, where 26 civilians were killed, India has decided to suspend the treaty. This marks a significant shift in one of the few functioning agreements between the two countries.

What is the Indus Water Treaty?

The Indus River is one of the longest rivers in Asia, flowing across sensitive borders between India and Pakistan. After the 1947 partition, both countries needed a clear water-sharing system, especially since the rivers cross national boundaries.

In 1960, with support from the World Bank, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty. It divided six rivers—India received control over Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej; Pakistan was given access to Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

The agreement has helped avoid major disputes over water for more than 60 years.

Why is this important?

India is geographically upstream in this river system, meaning it controls how much water flows into Pakistan. By suspending the treaty, India may choose to reduce or limit the flow of water, which could have direct effects on Pakistan’s water availability.

Over 230 million people in both countries depend on these rivers. Around 61% of them live in Pakistan. Major cities like Lahore, Multan, and Karachi rely on this water for domestic use and agriculture.

The water supports key crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane, and contributes nearly 25% to Pakistan’s economy. At a time when Pakistan is already facing water scarcity, any disruption to this flow could increase pressure on the country’s water systems.

Why should Pakistan be worried?

India had mentioned the possibility of using the treaty as part of its diplomatic strategy in the past. The recent decision appears to be part of a broader policy shift. Analysts believe India hasn’t ruled out a military response to the deadly attack in Pahalgam.

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