Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled for more than 30 years, but his future – and Iran’s – is full of questions. Once protected by his long grip on power, Khamenei now finds himself in the crosshairs of both the US and Israel. Former US President Donald Trump even claimed the US chose not to kill Khamenei, though they knew exactly where he was hiding. A chilling message, and one that signals just how high tensions are running.
But it's not just the US that seems to want change. Israel appears increasingly eager to topple Iran’s clerical regime. However, experts warn that this move could backfire. The Iranian opposition is too divided, and there’s no clear sign that anyone replacing Khamenei would be any less hardline. In fact, some believe removing him could make things worse — for both Iran and the world.
Since taking power in 1989, after the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Khamenei has built up a powerful network. He expanded the influence of Shiite Muslim clerics and boosted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which now plays a huge role in Iran’s politics and economy. His leadership helped transform post-war Iran into a major regional power, throwing its weight across the Middle East.
Perhaps the biggest mystery tied to Khamenei is Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In 2004, a curious move caught global attention: Iran announced a religious decree, or Fatwa, that effectively banned nuclear weapons. Former president Hassan Rouhani later admitted this idea was introduced during talks without much planning. Yet, Iran continues to bring it up in nuclear negotiations as proof of peaceful intentions.
Still, many remain skeptical. If Khamenei were to fall, analysts say Iran could abandon the fatwa altogether and rush to build a bomb. The risk? A more aggressive Iran with nuclear capabilities, and no clear leader at the helm.
Even worse, Khamenei has no confirmed successor. If he is removed or killed, Iran could spiral into chaos. Ethnic tensions, power struggles, and foreign meddling could tear the country apart. Some fear a scenario similar to post-invasion Iraq might unfold — with long-term consequences.
In the end, Khamenei is more than just a political figure. He’s a symbol — to some, a roadblock to peace; to others, the only thing stopping Iran from racing toward nuclear conflict.
Also read: Fear of radiation leak from Fordow nuclear site, as Trump mulls Iran attack
