Japan's birth rate has hit the lowest level in more than a century, with the annual number of births dropping below 700,000. The latest data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications shows a 5.7% decline in 2024, taking the number of births to 686,061 -- the lowest since 1899, when record-keeping began.
The fall in births meant Japan’s population was down by around 900,000 from the previous year.
Though the birth rate has been on a decline for the past 14 years, the drop to century-lows has been much faster that previously estimated. Notably, Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, in April 2023, forecasted that annual births would go below 700,000 only in 2038.
A closer look at the data reveals that among Japan’s 47 prefectures, 45 experienced population decline. Only the city of Tokyo and Saitama showed an increase.
So, why is the population collapse such a red flag?
Let’s have a look at Japan’s latest demographic landscape. The country now has 17% of its people in the age group of 75 and above.
The working-age population, aged between 15 to 64, has dropped to 59.6%. In fact, the working-age group constituted less that 60% of the population since 2018.
That figure arrived 14 years ahead of the government's predictions, and the steep drop is aggravating Japan's economic woes—
Putting further pressure on the country's welfare system, increasing the risk of labour shortage.
To address the urgent need to stabilise the population, the Japanese government has introduced a series of natalist policies that encourage couples to marry and have more children. 3.5 trillion yen -- or $23.7 billion -- annually was allotted under the Children’s Future Strategy, with the aim of stabilizing the population at around 100 million by 2026.
The plan was to provide monetary assistance, childcare services, and cultural reforms.
But, despite the huge spending, the plan has largely failed. Among couples who married, births are still relatively rare. Births out of wedlock stood at 2.5 percent in 2023.
Meanwhile, with the aging population, The number of deaths in 2024 grew by 1.9% to 1,605,298. The natural decrease — calculated as births minus deaths — was also at a record of 919,237. That was about 70,000 more than the previous year.
A number equivalent to the population of Kagawa Prefecture in western Japan was lost in a single year.
But, there is a silver lining. Even as the birth rates dropped, Japan recorded a spike in immigration. According to the government report, the number of foreign residents in the country increased to 35 lakh in a year. That's a ten times jump from the previous year.
Foreign labour might just be band aid that Japan needs.
As alarming as the situation in Japan might be, birth decline is not confined to just one nation. A shrinking population does not necessarily sound the death knell for an economy.
Countries like Finland and Sweden -- both of which have declining populations -- have managed to maintain strong economies by prioritising education, research and development, and innovation.
The world’s second-most populated country, China, is facing a slowdown in growth, triggerred by a population decline in 2022.
Beijing responded by doubling down investment in technology and automation. According to the US Congressional Research Service, China installed over 52% of the world’s industrial robots in 2022. The shift towards automation was done under "Made in China 2025". With plummeting birth rates, and advances in the field of robotics and artificial intelligence, technology may soon replace human workforce, at least in some parts of the world.
So here's something to think about: are we truly looking at a dystopian future like that in The Matrix or the Terminator?
