Bihar wrapped up its 2025 Assembly Elections in historic fashion last evening - recording voter turnout of 66.91% - the highest ever since 1951 when Independent India held its first-ever General Elections. And all exit polls but one predict a big NDA win.
Remember, the 243-seat Bihar assembly requires a simple majority of 122 seats to form the government. Most pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, projected a range of 135-167 seats for the NDA. Meanwhile, the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress and Left parties, is predicted to trail with 70-103 seats.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which many believed could be a party pooper, appears to have made little impact, with forecasts ranging between 0 and 5 seats.
However, there was at least one outlier last evening after voting closed - a local news portal called Journo Mirror. They claim the Mahagathbandhan will win between 130 and 140 seats, with the incumbent NDA getting 100-110 seats.
An NDA victory would mean the Nitish Kumar era would enter a third decade. Remember, he’s been in power since 2005 when he dethroned the RJD’s Lalu Prasad Yadav.
Expectedly, the NDA welcomed the projection. Leaders like BJP MP Dinesh Sharma declared that the “clean-up” of the RJD and the Congress from Bihar had begun.
Meanwhile the Mahagathbandhan questioned the reliability of the exit polls, staying firm that they would dethrone the NDA government in Bihar.
Importantly, the Election Commission of India (ECI) said polling remained “peaceful and incident-free” across the state during the second phase. Following the Red Fort blast in neighbouring Delhi, the ECI had made extensive security arrangements. This included around 1,500 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), 50 companies of the Bihar Military Police, and over 45,000 state police personnel being deployed.
Anyway, as with every election, these exit polls should be taken with a pinch of salt.
For those who forgot - most exit polls got it wrong in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls. Most had predicted a landslide victory for the Mahagathbandhan when in reality the NDA dominated proceedings.
All eyes will now be focussed on the ‘exact’ polls with the actual results being announced on November 14.
